应用周期图法分析1958～2012年甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎流行周期性

Applying Periodic Graphics Method to Analyze Epidemic Periodicity of Japanese Encephalitis in Gansu Province,1958～2012

目的分析甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎（JE）的流行周期,为制定防控措施提供依据。方法利用甘肃省疾病预防控制中心1958~2012年疫情资料和法定传染病报告系统资料,运用周期图法,分析甘肃省JE流行周期。结果甘肃省55年的平均发病率0.4924/10万。振幅周期为22年,周期振动有统计学上的显著性意义（J=4.605,P〈0.01）。结论甘肃省JE流行具有显著的周期性,流行周期为22年。自然因素对乙脑发病影响较稳定。

Objective Periodicity of Japanese Encephalitis（ JE） in Gansu Province in 1958 ~ 2012 was analyzed for making strategies of disease control and prevention. Methods JE data was from Epidemic Data in Gansu（ 1958 ~ 2003） and National Notifiable Diseases Registry System（ NNDRS,2004 ~2012）. Periodic graphics method was used in this study. Results The incidence rate of JE during 55 years was 0. 4924 per 100 000 population in average,with an epidemic interval of 22 years; there was statistical significance in periodic vibration（ J = 4. 605,P 0. 01）. Conclusion JE in Gansu Province was of a significant epidemic periodicity,and the epidemic interval was 22 years. The impact of natural factors on the incidence was stable.