农机服务与农户稻作制度选择研究——基于要素替代与收入效应视角的分析

Research of Agricultural Machinery Service and Farmers' Rice Planting Pattern Selection:Base on the Perspective of Substitution and Income Effect

长江流域稻作区农户稻作制度选择的演变关系到地区粮食安全。从要素替代程度与收入效应的视角，分析农机服务对农户单双季水稻生产的影响。研究结果表明，2004～2010年，农机服务对单、双季稻种植户劳动投入的要素替代现象客观存在，但两者的边际技术替代率均呈“倒U型”变化，反映出未来长江流域湖南、湖北、江西、安徽4省水稻生产中，继续追加农机服务替代劳动投入难度的不断增加。农机服务对水稻种植户的收入效应主要影响家庭总收入，而对稻作净收益影响为负。样本研究期内，由于双季稻生产的劳动力约束和村庄季节性用工短缺难以有效解决，农机服务的发展不能提高农户的水稻复种指数，单一依托发展农机服务无法有效激励农户选择双季稻。

There was a relationship between the evolution of farmers＇ rice planting pattern selection change in the Yangtze River Basin and the stability of China＇s grain security. In this paper, based on the perspective of substitution and income effect, the effect of agricultural machinery service on the production of single and double cropping rice was analyzed. Research results showed that factor substitution phenomenon which agricultural machinery service to rice labor input existed objectively from 2004 to 2010, but both marginal technical substitution rate showed ＂inverted U＂ change, reflecting that continue to additional agricultural machinery service to replace the labor input would be difficulty increasing in the future. Meanwhile, the income effect of agricultural machinery service had mainly affected the total household income. In sample research period, due to labor constraints of double-seasonal cropping rice and village labor shortages were difficult to solve effectively, the development of agricultural machinery service could not raise the farmers＇ rice multiple cropping index, only relied on the development of agricultural machinery service could not effectively motivate farmers select double-seasonal cropping rice.