产业结构调整与经济增长的动态分析——以湖南省为例

A dynamic analysis between industrial structure and economic growth in Hunan province

运用协整理论对湖南省经济增长与产业结构之间的均衡关系进行实证分析,并建立误差修正模型。通过研究可以得出:湖南省的经济增长与产业结构有一定的关系,从协整分析来看,它们之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但是湖南省产业结构有待进一步调整与优化,通过减少资源环境消耗,发展循环经济,利用第二、三产业推动湖南省的经济增长。从长期趋势来看,产业结构调整具有明显的增长效应,加速产业结构调整、促进经济增长、实现可持续发展在理论上和实践中具有可行性。可见,通过产业结构调整推动湖南经济持续增长具有较大的空间。

Industrial structure adjustment has a promoting effect on economic growth. This paper use the theory of cointegration to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and industrial structure in Hunan province and builds error correction model （ECM）. The result shows that there is a long-run stabilizing and cointegrating relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. But the industrial structure needs to be further adjusted and optimized in Hunan province, by reducing resource consumption, developing circular economy, using secondary industry ＆ tertiary industry to promote economic growth. From the point of long-term trend, the industrial structure adjustment has obvious effect for economic growth, it has the feasibility to promote the economic growth through accelerate industrial structure adjustment in theory and practice. Visibly, it has a very large space to promote sustained economic growth through the adjustment of industrial structure of Hunan.