中国农村人口省际流动研究--基于第六次人口普查数据

China's Rural Population Inter-provincial Flow:Based on the Sixth Nationwide Population Census Data

农村人口流动是中国人口流动的主体,对中国的人口空间格局和区域发展产生了重要影响。基于第六次人口普查数据,采用农村人口有效流动率和农村人口流动指数方法,对中国农村人口省际流动进行了研究。研究发现:1建立在农村人口有效流动率基础上的农村人口流动指数既可以表示农村人口流动的方向,也可以表示流动的强度,更可方便地进行区域比较,是研究农村人口流动的科学方法和指标。2农村人口有效流动整体上呈现出由中部地区、西南地区向沿海、沿边流动的总趋势,有效流动率在全局上具有弱相关性,局域上的低-低值聚集区主要分布于鄂、湘、渝、黔、云等地。3农村人口流动指数的正值区主要分布于南部沿海、东部沿海、京津和新疆等地区,负值区主要集中于中部地区和西南地区,由负值区进入正值区的农村人口流动构成了中国农村人口流动的主要方向和路径。4农村人口流动指数与人口总量、流出存量显著负相关,与经济总量、流入存量显著正相关。农村人口流动的实质是农村人口应对人口压力的现实反应,在流动目的地的选择中,流动网络和流动惯性在中国特定的社会背景下具有普遍意义。

Rural population flow is a main component of China＇s population flow and has an important impact on the spatial pattern of China＇s population and regional economic and social development. Based on the sixth nationwide population census data in 2010, this study analyses China＇s rural population inter-provincial flow by the method of rural population effective flow rate and rural population flow index. The conclusion can be drawn as follows. 1）Rural population flow index on the basis of effective flow rate can show both the direction and the strength of the rural population flow. Furthermore, it can be easily used to compare different regions＇ rural population flow. The rural population index is a scientific method and indicator to study the rural population flow. 2）On the whole, rural population effective flow shows the trend of flowing from central China and southwest China to the coast and the border. Effective flow rate has a weak spatial correlation to the whole,and the regional low-low value clusters are mainly located in Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan and so on. 3）The positive value regions of rural population flow index are mainly located in the southern coastal region, east coastal area, Beijing, Tianjin and Xinjiang, etc. The negative value regions are mainly concentrated in the central China and the southwest China. The rural population flow from the negative value regions into the positive value regions constitutes the main flow direction and the flow path of the rural population. 4）Rural population flow index is significantly negatively correlated with the total population and outflow stock and is significantly positively correlated with the total economy and the inflow stock of rural population. The essence of rural population flow is the response to the rural population pressure. In the selection of flow destinations,flow networks and the flow inertia have universal significance in the specific social context of China.