基于熵值-突变级数法的国家战略经济区环境承载力综合评价及障碍因子——以长吉图开发开放先导区为例

Integrated Assessment and Obstacle Factors of Environmental Carrying Capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones Based on Entropy and Catastrophe Progression Methods:A Case Study in Changchun-Jilin-Tumenjiang Development and Opening-up Pilot Area

针对国家战略经济区环境承载力的突变特性,以长吉图开发开放先导区为研究对象,基于熵值法和突变级数法,构建包括自然-经济-社会（N-E-S）3方面的环境承载力评价指标体系,结合障碍度诊断模型,对2000~2011年研究区环境承载力的时序变化特征以及影响因子进行分析。结果表明：1时序变化上,2000~2011年研究区环境承载力水平呈波动上升的趋势,从弱承载力上升到适中承载力,环境承载力水平的提高与自然-经济-社会系统的协调发展相关性较大。2环境保护投资总额占GDP比重、工业废水排放量、耕地化肥使用量、人均GDP、单位GDP能耗及经济密度等成为影响研究区环境承载力水平的主要障碍因子。

The environmental carrying capacity is a parameter to measure the capacity degree between human being social activities and the environment. To study the theories and quantification, methods of environmental carrying capacity is of significance in reality for directing human beings economic behaviors and harmonizing the relationships between social development and environment. With the rapid development of social economy and population growth sharply in National Strategic Economic Zones, the resource consumption and pollutant emission are increasing accordingly, which made resources and environment system under tremendous pressure, this situation would impact the level of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones. According to the catastrophic characteristics of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones, we selected Changchun-Jilin-Tumenjiang development and opening-up Pilot Area as the research object. Based on the entropy and catastrophe progression methods, we built an index system to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity, in which Nature-Economy-Society（N-E-S） indexes are included. Using obstacle degree models, we analyzed the temporal pattern of environmental carrying capacity and the obstacle factors from 2000 to 2011.Results are shown as follows：1） Temporally, the level of environmental carrying capacity rose from weak to moderate level from 2000 to 2011. 2） The proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, industrial waste water emissions, cultivated land fertilizer usage, the per Capita GDP, the energy consumptions per GDP and economic density are the main obstacle factors affecting the environmental carrying capacity. The approach established in the article has a lot advantages when dealing with municipal projects under complex evaluation problems and it does not use any weight, only need to arrange indicators in an order of important degree according to the inherent logic relationship among indicators, the shortcoming of making the subjectivity of the artificial weight evaluation in very large limit has also been avoided, as the same time optimizing the standard evaluation procedure,and could identify the temporal variation characteristics of environmental carrying capacity of National Strategic Economic Zones,and better reflect the key factor, providing a basic approach for improving environmental carrying capacity level of National Strategic Economic Zones.