湖北水资源生态承压能力的时空分异特征

Analysis on the Spatiotemporal Difference of Water Resources Ecological Carrying Capacity in Hubei Province

根据水资源生态足迹基本原理和计算模型,引入水资源生态承压能力指数,对湖北省2004—2012年的水资源生态足迹和生态承载力、水资源生态承压能力的时空分异特征、水资源生态承压能力和社会经济发展的空间关联性进行探讨。研究表明:(1)湖北省历年水资源生态承载力大于生态足迹,存在一定的盈余,但水资源生态承载力与生态足迹空间格局不匹配;(2)湖北省水资源总生态足迹和人均生态足迹总体呈上升趋势,万元GDP水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承压能力总体呈下降趋势。干旱、洪涝等自然灾害对湖北省水资源生态承载力影响较大;(3)湖北省社会经济发展状况与水资源生态承压能力存在负的空间关联,双变量局部空间自相关的LISA集聚类型出现HH,HL,LH和LL共4种类型,其中HH型仅占全省市州总数的1/17,社会经济发展和水资源生态承压能力空间分布不协调。加强区域水利基础设施的修建与完善,优化区域的产业布局,提高水资源利用和经济发展协调度,是实现湖北省水资源可持续发展的重要途径。

The spatial-temporal characteristics of water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity have been analyzed for better understanding of the water resources utilization in Hubei Province during the period from 2004 to 2012.The water resources ecological carrying capacity index is introduced to investigate its relationship with the socio-economic development based on the principles and calculation model for the water resources ecological footprint.The results indicate that：（1）the water ecological carrying capacity is larger than the ecological footprint in Hubei Province,and there is the mismatch between the spatial distribution of water resources ecological footprint and the carrying capacity;（2）there are increasing trends for the overall per capita water resources ecological footprint,but they decrease the GDP per 10 thousands Yuan,droughts,floods and other natural disasters have great impacts on the water resources ecological carrying capacity in this region;（3）there is the negative spatial correlation between the socio-economic development and water resources ecological carrying-pressing in Hubei Province revealed by the global spatial autocorrelation analysis.Double variable LISA cluster of local spatial autocorrelation can be divided into four types：HH,HL,LH and LL.The HH type accounted for one-seventeenth of the provincial total number of counties,which means that the social economic development is not coordinated with the water ecological carrying capacity.Therefore,the water infrastructure and industrial layout should be strengthened and optimized,respectively,to achieve the coordinated development of water resources utilization and economic growth,which is an important way for the sustainable development of water resources in Hubei Province.