哈尔滨冬季气象要素对空气质量指数的影响分析

Impact analysis of meteorological factors on the air quality index in Harbin winter

影响空气质量的要素很多,其中气象要素对空气质量的影响是不容忽视的。运用相关性分析、偏最小二乘回归和通径分析方法,研究了哈尔滨市2014年1月份气象要素对空气质量指数(Air quality index,AQI)的影响程度。相关性分析结果表明,AQI与平均风速显著性负相关,与平均相对湿度显著性正相关,气象要素间存在严重的多重共线性。根据相关性分析结果,建立了AQI与气象要素的偏最小二乘回归方程,模型拟合良好。通径分析结果表明,平均风速对AQI的直接作用、总作用和决策系数均最大,平均气压、平均相对湿度、平均气温通过平均风速对AQI的间接作用均大于它们对AQI的直接作用。平均风速为主要决定因素,平均气压为主要限制性因素。

Air quality was affected by many factors such as meteorological factors. Using correlation anal- ysis, partial least squares regression and path analysis, the effect of meteorological factors on the Air quality index （AQI） in January, 2014 in Harbin was studied. The results from the correlation analysis show that AQI has a negative correlation with the average wind speed, and has a positive correlation with the average relative humidity. A partial least squares regression equation of AQI and meteorological fac- tors are established through the correlation analysis, and the model fits the observations well. The results from the path analysis show that the direct contribution, the total contribution and the decision coefficients of the average wind speed acting on AQI are the largest. The indirect effects of the average air pressure, relative humidity, temperatures through the average wind speed on AQI are greater than the direct. The average wind speed is the main factor, and the average pressure is the main limiting factor.