基于灰色马尔可夫组合模型的装备维修费用预测

Equipment Maintenance Forecasting Based on Grey Markov Models

针对波动性较大的装备维修费用预测,提出了灰色马尔可夫组合模型用于该类经费预测,探索性地将三状态和四状态不同的划分方法运用于同一费用预测序列;仿真结果验证了较好的预测效果,并表明装备维修费用离散性越强,状态数多的模型预测结果较准确;灰色马尔科夫组合模型对具有趋势性和波动性的非平稳随机序列具有较好的拟合效果,可综合体现灰色预测和马尔可夫预测的优势,为装备维修费用预测提供一种新的途径和方法。

In view of the large fluctuation of equipment maintenance cost forecast,the paper put forward the grey Markov combination model for the forecast of the kind of funds,and exploratory used the three states and the four states of the different division methods in the same cost forecast series. Simulation results verified the good prediction effect,and the stronger the equipment maintenance cost discrete,the more accurate results that the multiple state models get in forecasting. Combining grey Markov model of trends and fluctuations of non-stationary random sequence has a good fitting effect,and the advantage of grey prediction and Markov prediction can be comprehensively embodied,which provides a new way and method for the prediction of the equipment maintenance cost.