江南茶叶农业气象灾害风险区划

Comprehensive Risk Division of Agro- meteorological Disaster for Tea in Southern Yangtze River

气象灾害是制约茶叶生产并影响其品质的主要因素。为提升江南地区茶叶生产气象服务保障能力,基于1961～2011年江南茶区逐日气象观测数据,分析江南茶叶主要农业气象灾害发生频率的年际及年代际分布,采用层次分析和加权综合评价方法,对茶区农业气象灾害进行综合风险区划。结果表明,随着全球气候变暖,江南茶区早春霜冻和冬季冻害发生频率均呈北多南少的纬向地带性分布,且呈逐年代减小趋势;夏季热害年代际发生频率表现为先降后猛增的特征,2000年代发生频率最高,以湖南、江西和浙江省变化最显著。江南茶叶农业气象灾害综合高风险区主要位于江苏北部和安徽北部,中风险区主要位于浙江中北部、江苏南部、安徽南部和湖北北部,而江西、湖南及福建大部、浙江南部和湖北南部属低风险区,适宜茶叶种植生产。

Meteorological disaster is the main factor which affects production and quality of tea. Based on the daily average,maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity of 478 weather stations in the southern Yangtze River including Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei,Hu＇nan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang and Fujian Province during 1961- 2011,the annual and decadal distributions of the main meteorological disasters of tea in the southern Yangtze River were analyzed,and the comprehensive risk division of agro- meteorological disaster for tea was studied by using analytic hierarchy process（ AHP）,weighting comprehensive evaluation（ WCE） and natural breaks（ Jenks） methods to promote meteorological service and support capability for tea production. The results showed that the annual average days of early spring frost and winter frost damage decreased gradually from north to south,which appeared latitudinal zonality distribution,and the decadal average days of early spring frost and winter frost damage decreased from the 1960 s to the 2000 s. The decadal change of summer heat damage was obvious,and the decadal average days of summer heat damage decreased gradually before the2000 s,subsequently increased significantly,especially in Jiangxi,Zhejiang and the east of Hu＇nan Province. The high risk areas of tea comprehensive agro- meteorological disaster were mainly located in northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui,which accounted for 11.3% of the south of Yangtze River. The moderate risk areas were located in central and northern Zhejiang,southern Jiangsu,southern Anhui and northern Hubei,which accounted for 30% of the total. The low risk areas were mainly located in southern Zhejiang,southern Hubei and most parts of Jiangxi,Hu＇nan and Fujian,which accounted for 58. 7% of the total,where it was perfectly suited to plant tea.