城镇燃气管道第三方施工损伤风险评价方法研究

Research on risk assessment method of third-party construction damage for urban gas pipeline

针对第三方施工对城镇燃气管道的不利影响,提出一种半定量风险评价方法。首先,基于"人—机—环境—管理"系统确定失效因素,利用G2赋权法对因素赋权,并引入物元模型分析失效可能性;然后,建立喷射火焰、闪火和蒸气云爆炸的数学模型计算管道泄漏的伤害面积,确定失效后果等级;最后,根据API 581中的风险矩阵得出燃气管道第三方施工破坏风险等级。实例分析表明,该方法兼具定性评价与定量评价的优点,能更加准确有效地进行风险分析,确定风险等级。

A semi- quantitative risk assessment method for urban gas pipeline was proposed in order to reduce the adverse effect of third- party construction damage. Firstly,the failure factors were determined based on the system of ＂ man- machine- environment- management＂,the factor weights were determined by G2 weighting method,and the matter element model was introduced to analyze the failure probability. Then,the mathematical models of jet flame,flash fire and vapor cloud explosion were established to calculate the damage area and determine the grade of failure consequence. Finally,the risk level of third- party construction damage for urban gas pipeline was obtained according to the risk matrix in API 581. Example analysis showed that this method combines the advantages of qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation. It can analyze the risk more accurately and effectively to determine the risk level.