基于AHP-熵权法的石化企业承灾体脆弱性评估

Evaluation on vulnerability of hazard bearing body in petrochemical enterprises based on AHP-entropy weight method

针对石化企业化工事故引发的区域脆弱性研究不足现状,构建脆弱性评估模式。该模式以石化企业承灾体常见事故类型分析为基础构建脆弱性评估指标体系,集成层次分析法和熵权法确定权重并引入多变量Kendall协和系数检验一致性,在此基础上运用模糊综合评价法评估其脆弱性等级。将该模式应用于某石化企业,得到企业内不同区域的脆弱性等级分布。案例应用表明:AHP-熵权法应用于确定指标权重能更好的综合主客观因素的影响,评估结果可指导企业采取事故控制和灾害预防措施,更好的控制区域风险。

In view of the present situation that the research on regional vulnerability caused by chemical accidents in petrochemical enterprises has been inadequate,a vulnerability evaluation mode was established. In this mode,the index system of vulnerability evaluation was constructed based on the analysis of common accident types for hazard bearing body in petrochemical enterprises. The weights were determined by combining analytic hierarchy process method with entropy weight method,and the Kendall＇s coefficient of concordance with multi variable was introduced to test the consistency. On this basis,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the vulnerability grade. This mode was applied in a certain petrochemical enterprise,and the distribution of vulnerability grades in different regions of the enterprise was obtained. The case application showed that when applying the AHP- entropy weight method to determine the index weights,the influence of subjective and objective factors can be better integrated,and the evaluation results can guide the enterprises to adopt accident control and disaster prevention measures to better control the regional risk.