摘要
针对中国2015年和2020年CO2排放强度减排目标,建立了以CO2强度减排为主要约束,综合考虑经济增长、能源结构以及产业结构等约束的石油需求优化预测模型。预测结果显示:2015年和2020年中国石油需求量分别为5.28亿吨、6.04亿吨,该结果意味着,未来我国石油需求总量仍将有较大幅度的增加,但占一次能源比重有所下降;与其他研究结果比较发现,减排约束对石油需求的增长起到一定的抑制作用;未来中国的石油对外依存度仍将处于较高水平。
China has proposed carbon dioxide reduction targets in 2015 and 2020. In this background, an optimization model considering carbon dioxide abatement target as hard constraint while taking the constraints of economic development, energy consumption structure and industrial structure into account was constructed. China's oil demands in 2015 and 2020 are 5.28 and 6.04 million tons respectively. The result shows that China's oil demand will greatly increase in the future, while its share will decrease to some degree; China's oil demand in 2015 and 2020 will be inhibited under the restrictions of CO2emission; China's dependency on imported oil in the future will still be high.
出处
《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》
CSSCI
2015年第1期48-52,共5页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271074)
安徽省电力经济技术研究中心委托项目(SGAHJY00GHJS1400150)
关键词
减排约束
石油需求预测
优化模型
CO2abatement constraint
prediction of oil demand
optimization model