中国电力消费“零增长”突变点动态轨迹的实证研究

The Zero Growth of Chinese Electricity Consumption and Its Prediction

电力消费的突变对经济的平稳运行造成了极大的干扰。利用PPM模型对部分发达国家人均电力消费增长率的突变点进行识别和分析。在总结其突变发生原因并借鉴突变时刻经济社会特征的基础上,对中国电力消费突变点进行了预测。研究发现:1960—2010年,发达国家电力消费轨迹共显示出6次显著的突变;发达国家电力消费轨迹呈倒"Z"形曲线;石油危机、金融危机为突变发生原因,电力产业由垄断转向竞争的制度改革;中国电力消费突变点在2037年左右到来,年人均电力消费大约为6 289千瓦时。

The mutations of electricity consumption caused great disturbances to the economy. This paper has identified and analyzed the abrupt change point of the growth rate of electricity consumption per capita with PPM model. It then summarized the mutation causes and drew lessons from economic characteristics of societies undergoing mutations, and forecast the electricity consumption mutation point of China. The study found that: from 1960 to 2010, the electricity consumption in developed countries showed six significant mutations; the trajectory of electricity consumption in developed countries was a 'Z'shaped curve; the causes could be summed up as the oil crisis and the financial crisis, and the power industry underwent the systematic reform and changed from monopoly to competition; the electricity consumption mutation point of China will be around 2037, when per capita electricity consumption reaches about 6 289 k WH.