突发性群体暴力事件的复杂特征与动态模型研究

Study to the Complex Features and Dynamic Model of Emergency Group Violent Events

通过对近些年来发生的突发性群体事件案例进行统计、分析和总结,发现突发性群体事件具有4个重要的复杂性特征,即导火索因素的非显著性、事件发展过程的非线性、场景的开放性和参与主体的适应性。导致这一现象的主要原因可归结为政府与涉事人群之间在事件不同发展阶段内的相互作用与冲突,其中人群的结构又可以动态地分为外围旁观者与处于核心位置的当事人、意见领袖与异常行为个体,这些主体之间的相互作用和相互影响决定了事件发展的方向。因此,有效应对突发性群体事件需要开展针对性的处置策略,包括从整体上消除人群的规模化效应,避免人群对个体可能产生的匿名性心理影响;从个体上及时发现和消除个体之间可能的谣言传播渠道,防止人群的聚集性增强;从组织上化解人群的群体规范效应,预防人群的有序性行为出现。

By studying and researching the examples of emergent group events that occurred in recent years,it is found there are four major complex features in this kind of events,namely non-significance of triggering factors,non-linear development of event,opening of the scenario,and adaptability of the participating individuals. The factors leading to this phenomenon could be attributed to the interactions and conflict occurring between the involved government and groups. Specifically, the group can be further dynamically categorized into bystanders and core members that include victims,opinion leaders and exceptional individuals. The interactions among these agents determine which towards which directions the event would develop. Thus,effective response to the emergency group events needs specifically strategy being adopted. the strategies include controlling group scale to prevent anonymous influence on individuals,removing the information flowing between individuals to prevent people gathering intensely,and breaking the group organization to prevent the occurrence of group violence.