基于垂直专业化的中国对外贸易隐含碳研究

Carbon Emissions Embodied in Foreign Trade of China :An Investigation based on Global Vertical Specialization

垂直专业化是当前国际贸易发展的重要特征。随着经济全球化的深入发展,国家(地区)间的垂直专业化程度逐步提高。通过构建基于垂直专业化的对外贸易隐含碳测算模型,利用可比价全球投入产出表测算并分析中国1995—2009年的对外贸易隐含碳;考虑到各国的技术异质性,使用各进口国本国的碳排放系数测算中国的进口隐含碳,以求测算结果更加准确。研究结果表明:1995—2009年,中国参与国际分工的垂直专业化程度逐渐增强,中国为生产出口产品排放了大量的CO2。中国对外贸易隐含碳在整体上逐渐增加,其中出口隐含碳从1995年的502.12百万吨增加到2009年的2 398.96百万吨;进口隐含碳从1995年的141.14百万吨增加到2009年的1 423.7百万吨,净出口隐含碳从1995年的360.96百万吨增加到2009年的975.26百万吨。从分行业的情况看,纺织业和光电设备制造业等部门是隐含碳的主要净出口部门;采掘业和建筑业等部门是隐含碳的净进口部门。中国的对外贸易隐含碳呈现失衡状态,主要表现在两方面:一方面,中国为对外贸易隐含碳的净输出国;另一方面,中国出口贸易隐含碳占出口产品总含碳量的比重一直高于中国出口产品中国内增加值的比重。

Nowadays, vertical specialization is the important feature of international trade. With the development of economic globalization, degree of vertical specialization among countries is gradually increasing. Under this background, by improving the calculating model of carbon embodied in trade, this paper calculates carbon emission embodied in foreign trade of China during1995—2009 by using global I-O tables in constant price. It takes the differences of production technology among countries into consideration, using carbon intensity in different county to calculate carbon embodied in import to make results more accurate.Results show that from 1995—2009, the tendency that China participated in vertical specialization strengthened and China produced export good with large amount of CO2 emissions. Carbon embodied in foreign trade of China increased on the whole, and the amount of CO2 in exports increased from 502.12 Mt in 1995 to 2398.96Mt; CO2 in imports increased from 141.14 Mt in 1995 to 1423.7Mt.Textile and optical and electronic sectors were main net exporters of CO2. Mining and construction sectors were net importer of CO2.There were two aspects of imbalance of CO2 embodied in trade. On the one hand, China was the net exporter of CO2; on the other hand, the percentage of carbon embodied in the total amount of carbon in export was much higher than that of the value-added in export.