“能源—经济—环境”系统的约束与解约束:理论与实证

The Constraints of“Energy-economy-environment”System and the Solution of the Constraints:Theoretical and Empirical Research

通过将能源和环境污染治理引入生产函数,污染引入效用函数,构建"能源(Energy)—经济(Economy)—环境(Environment)"(3E)系统的内生增长模型,系统地探讨在能源耗竭和环境污染约束下,3E系统解约束的条件以及参数取值与约束"松紧"程度之间的关系。理论研究表明:(1)人力资本是破解3E系统约束的关键变量;(2)时间贴现率的值越大,3E系统的约束越强;(3)可持续3E系统的均衡路径要求边际效用弹性大于1,且伴随着不断增加的污染治理投资份额;(4)高的边际效用弹性强化了能源耗竭约束,却削弱了环境污染约束。更进一步,利用中国的数据对理论模型的一些结果进行了计量检验,结果显示:中国的3E系统正向良好的方向发展,人力资本显著促进经济增长,污染治理对经济增长的影响尚不显著;区域层面上,东部的人力资本对经济的贡献明显高于中西部,而能源消费的贡献显著低于中西部。

Introducing energy and environmental pollution governance into the production function, and the pollution into the utility function, this research constructs an endogenous growth model of 'Energy-Economy-Environment'(3E) system. Based on the model,we systematically explore the solution of the constraints which include the energy depletion, environmental pollution and the relationship between parameter values and tightness of the constraints. Theoretical research shows that:(1)Human capital is a significant variable for solving the constraints of 3E system.(2)The larger the discount rate, the stronger 3E system constraints.(3)With the increasing pollution abatement investment, sustainable 3E system requires that the elasticity of marginal utility is greater than unit1 in equilibrium.(4)While weakening the environmental pollution constraint, higher marginal utility enhances energy depletion constraint. Furthermore, according to some results of theoretical model, an econometric model is employed into empirical analysis of China. We conclude that human capital has contributed significantly to economic growth, but the effect of pollution governance is not yet significant. Moreover, in terms of the contribution of human capital to economic growth, the eastern region is significantly higher than the central and western regions. With respect to the contribution of energy consumption, the opposite holds true.