人民币汇率变动对国内物价的传导研究——基于投入产出时间序列表的分析

The Pass-through Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Movements on Chinese Domestic Prices—Analysis based on Time Serial Input-output Tables

应用33个部门进口非竞争型投入产出时间序列表(1995—2011年),建立投入产出价格模型,考虑了汇率通过成本机制和替代机制的传导作用,量化分析人民币汇率变动对国内各类价格水平的传导作用。结果表明:汇率变动对国内物价的传导效果不显著;汇率变动对不同部门产品价格的传导存在显著差别;汇率变动对国内物价的传导随着价格链条向下游延伸而逐渐减弱;通过人民币升值缓解国内通胀压力的作用效果非常有限;2013年人民币汇率变动引起国内CPI下降1.09%。

This study assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic prices in China via the inputoutput price model based on non-competitive time serial input-output tables(1995—2011). The major findings of this study are as follows: the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices; the pass-through of RMB exchange rate to different departments prices is significantly different; the degree of exchange rate pass-through decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices; RMB appreciation has limited effect on easing China's domestic inflation pressure; RMB exchange rate changes caused the domestic CPI increase by 1.09% in 2013.