“民心”决定论的困境——以秦亡汉兴为例

Dilemmas of Determinism of Common Aspiration of the People—Study on Downfall of the Qin Dynasty and Establishment of the Han Dynasty

在中国历史上,朝代更迭与皇位易主通常需要诉诸于暴力战争,而战争胜负却并非由民心向背所决定。长期以来,平民百姓属于被统治阶层,与皇室、官僚相比明显弱势,缺乏有效的手段抵御外来侵害,也根本无力左右政局。"民心"决定论并不能准确解释中国历史上的政局变动。儒家对民心作用的鼓吹,只是价值追求,难以得到事实证据的有力支持。在秦汉交替的历史进程中,各路诸侯相互征战,并不顾及民众的感受,他们所采取的一系列政策,都是着眼于暴力战争的胜利,并以此决定最终的成败;这也是中国古代政权更迭的一般逻辑。

In Chinese history, the change of dynasties and the rulers often resorted to the violence of war, but the outcome of the war was not decided by people's emotional attitude. For a long time, common people were the governed and the powerless compared with the imperial family and the officials. Common people lacked effective means to resist external assault, and they were unable to determine the ownership of land. Determinism of common aspiration of the people cannot explain the changes of political situations in Chinese history. The Confucian advocating of popular feelings only represented a pursuit of values, and it was difficult to be proved by strong evidence. In the historical process of the Qin and Han Dynasties, the governors fought one another regardless of the people's feelings. They adopted a series of policies for victory in the war as a way to decide who would be the ultimate victor. This was also the general logic in regime changes in ancient China.