农业技术进步、农村劳动力转移对地区工资与收入差距的影响——基于SFA-CGE两阶段模拟分析

Agricultural Technological Progress,Rural Labor Transfer and the Effect on Regional Wage and Income Gap——Based on SFA-CGE Two-Stage Model

分析农业技术进步如何通过农村劳动力转移对地区居民在工资与收入差异产生影响的机制;选取2003—2009年具有显著农村劳动力释放的水稻、小麦及蔬果3个农业部门,对其微观固定观察点农户的技术进步率进行随机前沿模型(SFA)下的测算;将结果纳入可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型框架进行模拟分析。主要研究结论:小麦生产中机械对劳动力有显著替代和释放作用;虽然短期农业技术进步产生的农村劳动力释放与转移扩大了地区人均收入差异,但缩小了地区实际工资差距;长期地区实际工资水平的收敛,需要在完善劳动力市场、提高农村劳动力技能水平的同时,通过优化产业结构布局与促进产业发展来实现。

The paper first analyzed the impact of rural labor transfer on regional real wage and income, and then used the frame to get the progress rate of sector level by stochastic frontier model(SFA)based on fixed observation points of rice, wheat, fruit and vegetable producing from 2003 to 2009 and used the shock to stimulate by the computable general equilibrium(CGE)model. Results show that the substitution of mechanical technology of labor showed significantly in wheat production; in the short term, agricultural technology progress enlarged the income gap while helping to close the disparity of real wage between regions; however, in the long run, its effect of converging the real wage disparity should be guaranteed by both improving labor market mobility and rural labor skill ability as well as encouraging industry development in less developed regions by optimizing the industrial structure.