绿色增长驱动因素的国际比较研究——基于“20国集团(G20)”面板数据的实证检验

International Comparison on Determinants of Green Growth——Empirical Analysis on Panel Data of G20

从"绿色化"视角出发,将资源约束和环境绩效纳入到全要素生产率的测算框架,构建国家绿色增长指数。并融合A-EBM模型、全局Malmquist指数、Zofio分解分析与K-W秩和检验技术,实现对20国集团2000—2010年间绿色增长水平的动态比较以及驱动因素识别归纳,进一步明确各国绿色增长源泉和提升路径。结果表明:观测期内,20国集团绿色增长指数保持了较为平稳的态势,仅有发达国家在整体上实现了绿色增长,金砖国家和新兴国家则出现了绿色增长的"退步"。其中,中国的绿色增长指数在20国集团中最低,不但与发达国家具有显著差距,且低于金砖国家平均水平;各驱动因素中,技术进步和规模效率在20国集团整体上出现了改善,制度优化对包括中国在内的金砖国家以及发达国家的绿色增长产生了显著的促进作用,但在新兴经济体中出现了下降。技术规模偏好仅在发达国家中实现了进步,对其他组织的绿色增长均出现了抑制作用。基于以上分析结果,借鉴治理理论和技术转型理念,认为,应通过绿色技术转型和绿色治理能力提升以推动中国经济增长方式根本性的转变,加快对世界先进水平的追赶,尽快实现高水平的绿色增长。

A Green Growth Index(GGI) was constructed from the perspective of 'greenization' by taking resource constraint and environmental performance into the account of traditional productivity index. The Epsilon-based measure, the global malmquist,the Zofio decomposition, and the K-W rank-sum techniques were utilized to observe the status, trends, and determinants of GGI of G20 countries during 2000-2010 to identify contributors and optimal paths to achieve green growth. Our findings revealed that:GGI stayed stable in G20 while increased and decreased in BRICS and other emerging markets; China's GGI was the lowest and was lower than the GGI of advanced countries and the average GGI of G20;among all the determinants,technological change and scale efficiency improved in the G20,and institutional optimization contributed greatly to the advanced economies,the BRICS,and China, but not the emerging markets. Scale bias of technology change only exerted positive effects on developed countries,while played negative effects on other groups. Drawing on the governance theory and the technological transition concept,this study suggested that China need to put forward a green technological transition and strength its green governance capacity to facilitate a fundamental change in the old economic growth pattern to become green.