大数据时代专家在舆论场中的公信力分析

Credibility Analysis of Experts in Public Opinion Field in the Era of Big Data

大数据时代,数据专家的公信力表现为两种情况:一种为'塔西佗陷阱'现象——数据专家无论如何努力,都无法被公众信任;一种为'豪猪法则'现象——公众一边质疑,一边不得不依赖数据专家。造成前一现象的原因在于'专家无法摆脱利益和权力的影响''专家无法解决偶然性问题'和'数据方法存在非理性特征'等因素。造成后一现象的原因在于'现代社会存在高度分工''直觉无法给予公众安全感''公众信任真空区亟需填补'和'同行评议可资信赖'等因素。这两种现象互相矛盾,相互依存,共同表明了:'客观''理性'只是数据专家在舆论场中的身份修辞。

In the era of big data,the credibility of data experts in the public opinion field is manifested in two phenomena:one is the phenomenon of'Tacitus trap'—data experts cannot be trusted by the public no matter how hard they try;the other is the phenomenon of'the porcupine rule'—the public has to rely on data experts while questioning them.The reasons for the former phenomenon are as follows:experts cannot get rid of the influence of interests and powers;experts cannot solve contingency problems;data methods are irrational.The reasons for the latter are as follows:the high division of labor in modern society,the inability of intuition to give the public a sense of security,the need to urgently fill the vacuum of public trust,and the credibility of peer review.These two phenomena are contradictory and interdependent,showing that'objectivity'and'rationality'are only the rhetoric of identity of data experts in public opinion.