温度变化与电力需求的关系——基于2000—2014年中国城市面板数据的经验证据

The Relationship between Temperature Change and Electric Power Demand——Evidence from China’s Urban Panel Data from 2000 to 2014

识别和评估电力需求的影响因素,有助于开展科学的电力行业发展规划和实现可持续发展。然而,限于数据可得性和研究维度,温度变化这一关键影响因素的研究成果仍有待拓展。基于气象数据库,利用降温度日数和升温度日数指标构建方法,测算2000—2014年中国255个城市的温度变化情况,并运用面板数据分析方法考察温度变化指标对中国城市电力需求的影响。实证结果表明:(1)温度变化指标中降温度日数的增加将显著提高城市全社会用电量,若城市年降温度日数每增加1℃,城市全社会用电量则将增加2.33万千瓦时,城市地区生产总值也因此将增加17.07万元;(2)从电力需求结构来看,降温度日数和升温度日数的增加均将显著提高城乡居民生活用电量,而仅有降温度日数的增加将显著提高工业用电量;(3)温度变化和电力需求的关系受到经济增长水平、地理位置和季节特征的影响。

Identification and assessment of impact factors of electricity demand help to scientifically design the power industry and to develop sustainably.However,due to the lack of data and the limitation of research perspective,temperature change as a key influential factor only receives few attentions from existing studies.Based on meteorological database,this paper uses the method of constructing HDD(Heating Degree Days)and CDD(Cooling Degree Days)to measure the temperature changes of 255 cities in China from 2000 to 2014,and uses panel data analysis method to examine the influence of temperature change index on urban power demand in China.The empirical results show that:(1)The increase in the number of CDD in the temperature change index will significantly increase the power consumption of Chinese cities.If CDD increases 1℃in a year,electricity consumption will increase 23 300 kWh in the whole society,and the GDP of the same city will also increase by 0.170 7 million yuan.(2)From the perspective of the electricity demand structure,the increase in CDD and HDD will significantly increase the residential electricity consumption,while only the increasing of CDD will significantly increase the industrial electricity consumption.(3)The higher level of economic development and industrialization,the higher electricity demand of the whole society generated by CDD.The level of economic growth,geographical location and seasonal characteristics will influence the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand.