技术进步与中国OFDI:促进与溢出的双重考察

Technological progress and China's OFDI:Double inspection of the promotion and spillover effects

探讨技术进步与对外直接投资(OFDI)的关系对理解中国OFDI持续扩张的内在动因及其外溢效应具有重要的现实意义。基于2003-2012年176个中国对外直接投资国(地区)的跨国数据,本文采用面板数据VAR模型从促进和溢出两个角度实证分析了技术进步与中国OFDI的双向互动效应。结果表明,技术进步与OFDI存在显著的正反馈效应,技术进步不仅对OFDI的快速扩张具有促进作用,同时,逐年扩张的OFDI通过逆向技术溢出也可以推动国内技术进步。进一步对东道国的分类研究发现,对于以发展中国家或欠发达国家为主的非OECD国家,技术进步对OFDI的正向影响相对较弱,而OFDI对技术进步的影响则相对较强;对于以发达国家为主的OECD国家,技术进步对OFDI的正向影响相对较强,而OFDI对技术进步的影响相对较弱。基于以上研究结论,本文认为,现阶段应积极实施"走出去"战略,推动技术进步与中国OFDI扩张的良性互动,同时在积极实施"走出去"战略时要充分考虑到不同经济发展水平国家(地区)的差异性。

To study the relationship between technological progress and OFDI is very meaningful for understanding the intrinsic mechanism and spillover effects of China＇ s OFDI expansion. Based on multinational panel data from 176 host countries（regions） , the paper empirically studies the interactive relationship between China＇ s OFDI and technological progress. The results show that the technological progress can promote the expansion of China＇ s OFDI, and China＇ s OFDI can also promote the technological progress, the two - way interactive effects are very significant. In addition, this paper also investigates the interactive relationship between China＇ s OFDI and technological progress in OECD countries and non - OECD countries respectively. The study found that for the non - OECD countries, the positive effect of the technological progress on OFDI is relatively weaker, and the positive effect of China＇ s OFDI on the technological progress is relatively stronger; while for the OECD countries, the positive effect of the technological progress on OFDI is relatively stronger, and the positive effect of China＇ s OFDI on the technological progress is relatively weaker. According to the results, we believe that it is ought to carry out the ＂going out＂ strategy to promote the good interactive relationship, and at the same time it is ought to fully consider the differences between the developed countries and the developing countries.