人民币汇率对广西出口贸易的影响——基于1993—2013年年度数据的实证分析

The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on Export Trade in Guangxi——Empirical Analysis Based on 1993-2013 Annual Data

从理论上看,货币升值会降低出口,货币贬值会促进出口,但是在其他因素的作用下货币升值对出口的影响可能不显著。本文通过1993—2013年的年度数据,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验计量方法对人民币汇率和广西出口额进行实证分析,结果表明人民币汇率与广西出口额在长期内存在稳定均衡关系,人民币升值没有抑制广西出口贸易。

From the theoretical perspective,the appreciation of currency will reduce exports,and the currency devaluation would promote exports. However,the impact may not be significant because of the role of other factors. Based on 1993-2013 annual data,this paper uses co-integration test,error correction model and Granger causality test measurement method to make an empirical analysis of the RMB exchange rate and Guangxi exports. The result shows that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the export volume of Guangxi in the long term,and the appreciation of RMB does not restrain exports of Guangxi.