人民币国际化影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of the Internationalization of RMB

关于人民币国际化问题,以往文献大多仅对经济规模、金融市场发展程度、币值稳定性、网络外部性等传统影响因素进行实证分析。本文引入军事实力因素,利用2000—2012年美元、欧元、英镑和日元构成的面板数据构建多元线性回归模型,通过FGLS法进行估计,实证结果表明:GDP是影响一国货币国际化的最重要因素,其次是网络外部性和汇率波动性,同时证实军事实力因素确实对货币国际化具有正向作用。

Concerning the RMB internationalization,the previous literatures just focued on economic scale,fi- nancial market development,currency stability,network externalities and other traditional influencing factors. This paper introduces military factor into the study,constructs a multivariate linear regression model by using panel data of dollar,euro,pound and yen from 2000 to 2012,and applies FGLS method for an empirical study. The results show that：GDP is the most important factor that affects the internationalization of a country＇s currency;the second is the network externality and exchange rate volatility;the military strength has a sure positive effect on the internationalization of currency.