东道国主权信用下降对当地中国直接投资的影响——基于母国制度视角的分析与实证检验

Effect of the Decline of Host Country's Sovereign Credit on Local Chinese Direct Investment——An Analysis and Empirical Test Based on the Perspective of Home Country's Institutions

现有对东道国主权信用与外商直接投资关系的研究并未考虑不同母国制度环境下跨国公司及其母国的不同行为特征。文章引入跨国公司及其母国为参与方,对主权信用下降的东道国与跨国公司及其母国之间的博弈进行理论分析,指出母国制度是影响结果的关键。进而基于母国制度视角,分析东道国主权信用下降对当地中国直接投资的影响,并采用42个东道国主权信用对2003—2012年当地中国直接投资影响的动态面板数据模型进行实证检验。结果表明:发达东道国主权信用下降反而更加吸引中国直接投资,发展中东道国主权信用对中国直接投资影响不显著。研究为解释当前中国对外直接投资的差异化行为提供了新视角。

That the different behavior characteristics of transnational corporations （TNCs） and their home countries come from different home institutions is not considered in the existing studies on the relation between the decline of host country＇s sovereign credit and FDI. With the introduction of TNCs and their homes as participants, the paper makes theoretical analysis on the game played by hosts with declined sovereign credit, TNCs and their homes. The analysis points out that the home country＇s institutions are the key to the result. Then the effect of the decline of hosts＇ sovereign credit on local Chinese direct investment （CDI） is analyzed from the perspective of home country＇s institutions, and an empirical test is made with the dynamic panel data model of the effect of 42 hosts＇ sovereign credit on 2003-2012 local CDI. The results show that the decline of developed hosts＇ sovereign credit attracts more CDI, while the effect of developing hosts＇ sovereign credit on local CDI is not significant. The study provides the understanding of the different behaviors of Chinese outward direct investment with a fresh perspective.