上海市交通碳排放量与城市发展的关系研究

Study on the relationship between transportation carbon emissions and development of Shanghai

随着社会经济快速发展,上海市交通需求量逐年增长,导致交通运输行业的能源消费量以及碳排放量不断增加。研究了1998—2012年上海市交通碳排放量与城市发展的关系,并对该市的交通碳排放量进行了预测与情景分析。结果表明,上海市交通碳排放量与人均GDP、人均消费支出、城市化率均呈显著的正相关关系。协整检验显示,上海市交通碳排放量与上海市城市发展存在协整关系。对交通碳排放量影响最显著的是城市化率,其次是人均GDP,再次是人均消费支出。在正常、低碳、强化低碳情景下,2050年上海市的交通碳排放量分别为46 599.24万、28 196.70万、9 575.47万t。通过转变发展方式,有望科学合理地减少交通碳排放量。

With the rapid development of social economy,transportation demand is growing in Shanghai,causing increasing transportation energy consumptions and carbon emissions. In this paper, the relationship between transpor- tation carbon emissions and development of Shanghai during 1998-2012 was studied. The transportation carbon emis- sions were predicted and scenario analyzed. Results showed that transportation carbon emissions were significantly correlated with GDP per capita, consumption per capita,and urbanization ratio. Cointegration test displayed long term stable equilibrium relationship between transportation carbon emissions and development of Shanghai. The most sig- nificant influential factor on the transportation carbon emissions was urbanization ratio, followed by GDP per capita, and then consumption per capita. The transportation carbon emissions were to be 465.992 4 million,281.967 0 million and 95.754 7 million tons in 2050, under the normal,low carbon and enhanced low carbon scenarios, respectively. By changing develop mode, it was expected to reduce transportation carbon emissions scientifically and rationally.