中国货币政策会冲击到美国货币政策吗--基于效应外溢的视角

Does China's Monetary Policy Affect America's Monetary Policy?—From the Perspective of Spillover Effect

作为金融超级大国,美国的货币政策对他国货币政策的冲击是全球性的。然而,随着中国成为全球第二大经济体和它在国际贸易中占比的提升,中国不应仅是美国货币政策的被动接受者,它的货币政策也可能对美国产生一定的冲击。中国货币政策的实施是否对美国的货币政策及其关键中介目标也产生了外溢效应以及溢出程度,构成本文研究的核心。基于此,本文运用事件分析法对中国货币政策对美国作为中介指标的利率和汇率是否存在溢出效应和溢出程度进行了实证检验,并对其传导机理给予了分析。研究结果表明,中国货币政策的实施对美国的利率和汇率均存在溢出效应,数量型货币政策工具的溢出效应更强,价格型货币政策工具的溢出效应相对较弱。另外,美国对华贸易依存度和中国金融开放度的提高,会影响中国货币政策冲击对美国利率和汇率的净溢出程度。上述结论意味着,中国货币当局在一定程度上已经具备了制衡和主动抵御美国货币政策冲击的能力。

As a financial superpower country, America＇s monetary policy has global impact. However, with China becoming the world＇s second largest economy and the rising of its proportion in the global international trade, China is not just a passive recipient of America＇s monetary policy. Instead, China＇s monetary policy may also generate certain impact on the U.S. The core of this paper is to study whether the implementation of China＇s monetary policy could produce the spillover effect on America＇s monetary policy, its intermediate targets and degree. In view of this, this research empirically tests whether there is a spillover effect of China＇s monetary policy on the interest rate and exchange rate in the U.S., which are the intermediate targets of its monetary policy, and then further study is conducted on its transmission mechanism. The results show that China＇s monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on the interest rate and exchange rate in the U.S, and the spillover effect of the quantitative monetary policy instrument is more intense than the price-based monetary policy instrument. In addition, with the trade volume ratio becoming larger between the U.S. and China, and more opening of China＇s financial market to outside, these factors will have influence on the spillover effect. These conclusions reflect that the Chinese monetary authorities have already had the ability to＂ balance and resist America＇s monetary policy shocks to some extent.