基于空间信息格网的极端洪水灾害期望损失估测

Estimation of Expected Losses for Extreme Flood Disaster Based on Spatial Information Grid

分析了我国极端洪水灾害的社会属性和自然属性,得到受灾区域社会经济数据空间展布格网和极端洪水自然水文特性格网,通过社会经济数据空间展布格网和极端洪水特性格网的叠加,建立极端洪水灾害损失空间信息格网,利用极值理论和分割多目标风险方法,得到极端洪水风险损失的分布及其条件期望值.选取哈尔滨市1998年的极端洪水为例进行实证分析,给出了相应的极端洪水风险损失估计.

With support of the remote sensing and GIS, the social economics data and the character of extreme flood disaster spatial information grid are given through which the loss of extreme flood spatial information grid is allowed. Through this grid, this paper gives the loss in each unit, the expected value and the distribution using the extreme value theory and partitioned multi-objective risk method （PMRM）. This paper selects the example of Harbin city and gives the estimation loss of extreme flood disaster using the spatial information grid in 1998. With support of Matlah simulation, this paper gives the estimation of loss for extreme flood disaster whose distribution is proved to be generalized Pareto distribution. The parameter estimations are showed by using the method of MLE.