基于系统动力学的物流园区建设对城市经济的影响研究——以重庆市为例

Influence of Distribution Park Planning to Urban Economy Based on the System Dynamics——Taking Chongqing as an example

文中根据系统动力学原理,建立地区经济和物流关联性的系统动力学模型,在此基础上,使其模型的主要参数和反馈关系得以确定。采用2005年-2012年重庆市的经济和物流相关数据,对模型通过系统动力学Vensim PLE软件进行稳定性检验和灵敏度检验,最后进行模型仿真分析,根据分析结果并结合重庆市的经济与物流园区建设的发展现状,提出有效的途径和方法,以促进重庆市经济和物流的发展。

In this paper, according to the system dynamics principle, the system dynamic model of the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics is established. On the basis of this model, main parameters and the feedback relations are set up. By using the relevant data of Chongqing city＇s economic and logistics from 2005 to 2012,the system dynamic software Vensim PLE is used to test the stability and sensitivity on this model. Finally, through the analysis of the model simulation results, and the current situation of the development of Chongqing city＇s economic and logistics park construction are combined, some ways and means are presented and used to promote the development of Chongqing economy and logistics.