基于回归分析的粮食安全状况预测研究——以江苏省为例

Research on the Prediction of the Grain Security Situation in Jiangsu Province Based on Regression Analysis

粮食是人类生活最重要的物质基础,因此粮食安全是关系社会稳定、国家发展的大事。江苏省是我国东部经济发达省份之一,随着城市化、现代化的不断推进,耕地资源逐渐紧缺,粮食安全岌岌可危。对其粮食安全状况进行预测研究有着深刻的现实意义。本文以江苏省经济、人口、耕地利用变化等相关数据为基础,分析江苏省人口、耕地面积变化的趋势和驱动因素,利用回归分析来预测江苏省2015和2020年的人口和耕地面积,得出粮食安全自给率低于可接受的粮食供给安全水平。最后从保障高质量耕地、加强粮食生产计划、和提高有关技术的研究和推广3个方面提出保障粮食安全的对策与建议,为全国其他各省市保障粮食安全提供参考。

The grain is human＇s most important material basis of life, so the grain security is of great importance of social stability and national development. As one of China＇s economically developed eastern provinces, With the advance of urbanization, modernization, Jiangsu province arable land resources is gradually shortage , grain security is also at risk. Therefore, Studies on the prediction of grain security has profound practical signif- icance. In this paper, On the basis of the economy, population, the use of cultivated land and some relevant historical data of Jiangsu Province,Analyzing the population, arable land area trends and drive factors. Using regression analysis to predict Jiangsu Province 2015 and 2020 population and arable land,and concluded that the food self- sufficiency rate is lower than the safety of the food supply acceptable level. Finally,Put forward countermeasures from three aspects：Protecting high quality arable land, enhancing food production plans, and improve related technology research and promotion, To provide references for other provinces and cities ensure grain security.