潭水河流域预报方案构建探索

Construction of Forecasting Programs of Tanshui River Basin

针对潭水河流域荆山水文站,首先进行了暴雨洪水特点及难点分析,介绍适用的新安江模型、单位线法、降雨径流相关法3种方法的原理及适用条件,然后通过应用以上3种方法建立潭水河荆山站洪水预报方案,使用201415"海鸥"暴雨径流过程进行方案检验。分析结果表明,荆山站资料齐备,使用新安江模型预报更为可靠。

Flood forecasting of medium and small rivers has been important and difficult work of flood control and disaster mitigation. First of all, the characteristics and difficulties of the storm flood was analyzed based on Jinshan hydrological station in Tanshui River Basin in this paper. And the principle and applicable conditions of Xin＇anjiang model, unit line method, rainfall runoff correlation method were introduced. The flood forecasting method was established by using the three methods metioned above and validated by using 201415 ＂ Seagull＂ storm runoff process. The results show that Xin＇anjiang model is more suitable for forecasting Jingshan station because of its complete information.