人民币贬值能够刺激经济增长吗?——基于VAR模型的非对称效应分析

Can Depreciation Stimulate the Economy?——An Asymmetry Effect Analysis based on VAR Model

本文采用向量自回归方法 (VAR),从人民币升值和贬值两个角度就汇率波动对经济增长的影响进行了分析,结果表明人民币有效汇率波动对经济增长具有显著非对称性影响,升值对经济的抑制作用要弱于贬值的促进作用。但是,利用直接标价法下美元、欧元和日元对人民币的实际汇率进行稳健性检验时发现结论有较大差异,且都显示贬值的绝对影响大于升值的影响。结论的不稳健性意味着新常态下决策部门不宜高估贬值的刺激效果。

This paper used VAR model to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth from two perspectives, that is appreciation and depreciation of RMB. The result showed that RMB exchange rate fluctua- tions have a significantly asymmetric effect on economic growth, and the inhibitory effect of appreciation on the economy is weaker than the promotion effect of depreciation. However, we found the conclusion is quite different when we carried out robust tests to the real exchange rate of the dollar, the euro and the yen against the RMB, and the abdolute effect of devaluation is greater than the impact of appreciation. This means that the authority should evaluate the impact of devalu- ation cautiously in New Normal.