基于断层运动和应力演化分析断层强震危险程度的研究进展

Analyzing Strong Earthquake Hazard based on Fault Movements and Stress Evolution:A Review

震间断层强震危险性研究是地震中长期预测中的基础科学问题,其中断层运动及应力演化的研究对认识地震的孕育发生、破裂过程具有重要意义,为地震危险性分析提供科学依据。本文首先回顾了震间断层运动模型的理论研究进展;其次,简略地回顾了断层不均匀性和断层摩擦定律的研究历程,论述了确定摩擦参数、圈定凹凸体的发展趋势与研究动态,并阐述了基于断层不均匀性和断层摩擦定律的强震过程数值模拟的应用;最后,论述了基于断层运动和应力演化分析断层中长期强震危险程度的应用,并叙述了与地震短期、临震预测密切相关的断层运动成核过程。

Strong earthquake hazard analysis is a basic scientific issue for mid-long term earthquake prediction.Study of fault movement and stress evolution is of great significance to understanding earthquake preparation and rupture process,and provide the scientific basis for seismic hazard analysis.Firstly,we reviewed the progress on theoretical models of interseismic fault movement.Secondly,we briefly reviewed development of fault heterogeneity and fault fracture.Thirdly,we discussed the development and research trend on determining friction parameters and delineating asperity and the application of numerical simulations of strong earthquake processes based on fault heterogeneity and fault fracture.Finally,this paper discussed the application of analyzing the mid-long term strong earthquake hazard on fault based on fault movement and stress evolution,and then introduced the nucleation process of fault movement that closely related to short term and impending earthquake prediction.