透视TPP:理念、特征、影响与中国应对

Probing the TPP: Concept, Features, Impact and China's Reaction

旷日持久的"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"(TPP)谈判终于落下帷幕。从协定达成的条款内容来看,TPP反映了自由贸易、公平贸易、价值链贸易、价值贸易、安全贸易、包容性贸易的基本理念,体现了全面自由化、议题覆盖广、标准高、创新度强、利益平衡的自由贸易协定特征。它为以全球价值链为基础的21世纪商业规则确立了基准与模板,并必将影响未来全球贸易治理的发展。由于中国未加入该协定,TPP将通过贸易转移效应、原产地规则效应、投资竞争效应、规则竞争与溢出效应对中国构成挑战与潜在威胁。为最大程度降低TPP带来的负面影响,中国在短期内应采取必要的预警与对冲措施。从长期来看,TPP的目标和绝大多数条款与中国构建开放型经济新体制的目标和议程并不相悖,它为中国构建市场化、国际化与法治化的现代化营商环境和政府规制提供了有益标尺和参考。

TPP finally reached a deal after 5 years' intensive negotiations. It embodies evolvingfundamental concepts of trade rules, namely, free trade, fair trade, value-chains trade, valuein trade, security trade and inclusive trade. As a comprehensive, far-reaching, high-standard,innovative and balanced free trade agreement, it provides a template and benchmark for 21st-century trade rules based on global value chains and will destine to have a crucial impact onthe global trade governance in the future. Considering the fact that China is excluded to jointhe agreement, TPP will impose a challenge and potential threat to China through tradediversion effect, rule of origin effect, investment competition effect, and rulecompetition and spillover effect. To minimize the negative effect of TPP, China should takenecessary early warning and hedging measures in the short run. In the long run, the goal of theTPP agreement and most part of its disciplines seem to be consistent with China's reformagenda which aims to establish a new out-looking economic system. It will provide China avaluable reference for shaping market- oriented, internationalized, rule- based businessenvironment and government regulations.