我国城镇化水平收敛性——理论假说与实证研究

Convergence of Urbanization in China: Theoretical Hypotheses and Empirical Research

以经济收敛理论为基础对我国31个省区1990-2013年城镇化水平的收敛性进行分析。通过设置多种空间权重矩阵将空间效应纳入计量模型,实证结果表明:我国城镇化水平存在显著的空间正相关,地理距离因素是影响城镇化空间相关性的主要因素;地区城镇化水平不存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,单纯靠市场的自我调节机制难以缩小区域差距,政府应适当加强宏观调控作用;控制变量的引入加快了城镇化率的发散速度,与理论预期相反的是,经济发展水平对城镇化增长率存在负向影响,区域间经济水平差距过大是加快城镇化水平发散的重要原因。

In this paper,econometric model is constructed to analyze the convergence of Chinese provincial urbanization during 1990- 2013 based on economic convergence theory. Spatial effect is incorporated into the model by setting a variety of spatial weight matrix. The empirical results show that： there is an obvious positive spatial correlation of China’s urbanization,Geographic distance is the most important factor,but China’s urbanization doesn’t show significant β absolute convergence and β conditional convergence,It is difficult to narrow the regional gap only by the self-adjustment mechanism of market,the government should strengthen the effect of macro-management,The control variables are introduced to speed up the pace of urbanization rate of divergence,Contrary to the theoretical expectation,the economic development has negative effect on the urbanization growth rate,which means the huge gap of regional economic development is the main course of speeding up the divergence of China’s urbanization.