中国经济增长：内生还是外生型

China's Economic Growth: Endogenous or Neo-classical

现有文献或使用新古典模型或用内生增长模型考察中国经济增长,鲜有人对中国经济增长究竟适用于何种分析框架进行探讨。根据前者,主要依赖投资拉动和后发优势的高速增长基本结束;根据后者,转向新常态一说不再成立。本文将2008年之后的经济调整纳入考察范围,利用更适用于中国小样本和单整阶数不一致情况的分布滞后自回归界限检验法,并控制影响资本回报的其他因素,研究发现中国经济增长具有明显的新古典特征,2008年后,中国经济趋向低速增长的新常态,这一结论与为数不多的现有文献结论恰好相反。2008年之前,中国资本回报率未随投资大幅增加而下降源于改革开放和经济结构转型的抵消作用。

Current literature utilize either neo-classical or endogenous growth model to analyze China＇s economic growth, few of the researchers ever attempt to identify which model is applicable to China. According to endogenous growth model, the growth of China can always rely on investment, 7 year＇s setback represents a temporary departure from its long-run growth path. However, the neo-classical growth theory should apply, the setback may signal the beginning of a downward trend for Chinese economy. This paper, taking into consideration of downward trend since 2008 and using autoregressive distributed lag method, empirically tests which model applies to China＇s economic growth. By estimating both time series and panel data the paper finds that contrary to conclusions from current literature, China＇s growth vigorously supports neo-classical instead of endogenous growth theory. Further decomposition reveals that economic reform and opening-up are the key elements to offset diminishing returns on China＇s capital.