温州市某公立医院临床医疗人才需求预测研究

Study on Demand-prediction of Clinical Medical-talent in a Public Hospital of Wenzhou City

目的:建立一个能应用于公立医院人力资源管理的医疗人才需求测算模型。方法:在国内外人才需求预测理论和方法的基础上,以温州市某三甲医院为例,利用调查分析法,多元回归预测法和时间序列法,建立公立医院医疗人才需求的预测模型。结果:建立了临床医疗人才需求预测模型,并利用该模型预测了2014年人才需求数。结论:临床医疗人才需求预测模型具备较强应用性。

Objective ： To establish a demand predication model of medical talent that can be used for human resource management in public hospitals. Methods： Toking a grade A tertiary hospital in Wenzhou city for example, establishing demand prediction model of medical talent in public hospitals with method of descriptive inventories, Muhi - factor line regression and time series analysis under the basis of talent demand pre- diction theory and method from both domestic and overseas. Results： The demand - prediction model of clinical medical - talent was established, and was used to predict talent demand in 2014. Conclusion： The demand - prediction model of clinical medical - talent has good applicability.