基于PSR模型的我国重要矿产资源安全评价

Evaluation of major mineral resources' security in China based on PSR model

矿产资源是国家安全和经济发展的重要保障，矿产资源安全与我国工业化进程密切相关。本文运用PSR模型，对我国7种重要矿产资源（煤、石油、天然气、铁、铜、钾盐、稀土）2002-2012年的安全程度进行评价。结果显示，我国7种重要矿产资源的安全压力均逐年增大；除钾盐外的6种重要矿产资源安全状态均变差；我国7种重要矿产资源的安全响应均增强；铜和钾盐的安全程度有所上升，其余5种重要矿产资源的安全程度均有所下降，其中，稀土安全程度下降幅度达60％，天然气和煤的下降幅度高于45％；7种重要矿产资源的PSR协调度均未达到最优状态，且不同矿种相对最佳协调状态的年份和协调水平存在差异。

Mineral resources are important guarantee to national security and economic development.Mineral resources＇ security is closely related with Chinese industrialization process. In this paper, thesecurity of 7 major mineral resources （coal, oil, natural gas, iron, copper, potash and rare earth） in Chinafrom 2002 to 2012 were analyzed based on PSR （Pressure-State-Response） Model. The results indicate thatthe pressure of major mineral resources increased year by year, the state of the 6 major mineral resources（except potash） showed a deterioration trend, the response of major mineral resources enhanced. Thesecurity degree of copper and potash increased, while the security of the rest mineral resources decreased.Furthermore,the security degree of rare earth declined by 60% and the security degree of natural gas andcoal declined by more than 45%. Besides, the coordination degree of major mineral resources＇ Pressure-State-Response failed to reach the optimal state, and there were differences in the coordination degreebetween the 7 major minerals and the time to reach the best coordination degree.