资本项目开放、汇率政策与资产价格

Capital Account Opening,Exchange Rate Policy and Asset Price

本文首先基于一个一般均衡的理论框架,阐述了资本项目开放程度、汇率政策对资产价格的影响机制和作用特征。数值模拟结果显示,资本项目开放程度变化、汇率波动对资产价格稳定具有重要意义;相比于汇率管制程度的调整,资本项目开放程度变化对资产价格的作用效果表现出更大的差异性。基于发达国家与新兴市场国家的面板数据实证分析表明,资本项目开放对发达国家资产市场的影响更为明显,汇率稳定则对新兴市场国家资产市场发展显著有利。考虑到当前世界各国实行不同程度的资本项目开放,维护汇率稳定对资产市场的重要意义进一步显现,这在新兴市场国家尤为突出;此外,实证还考察了经济基本面与货币金融因素对资产价格的影响。本文认为,在美国量化宽松货币政策退出、多个新兴市场国家的外汇与资产市场受到冲击的复杂背景下,我国应当审慎推动资本项目开放,同时进一步扩大人民币汇率的双向波动空间,使之尽早稳定在合理的均衡汇率区间,这对于我国资产市场长远发展与金融体系稳健运行均具有积极的现实意义。

Based on the theoretical framework of general equilibrium,this paper firstly expounds the mechanism of influence of the opening extent of capital account and exchange rate policy on asset price and the features of roles in which they play. The numerical simulation demonstrates that the opening extent change and exchange rate fluctuation are very important for the stability of asset price. In comparison with exchange rate control extent,the effects of the roles played by the opening extent of capital account in asset price show greater diversity. The empirical analysis that is based on the panel data of developed countries and emerging market countries indicates that the influences of capital account opening on the asset market of developed countries are more obvious. Exchange rate stability is more conductive to the asset market development of emerging market countries. Considering that all the countries in the world conduct capital account opening of different extents,maintaining exchange rate stability is very important for asset market,especially for emerging market countries.In addition,this paper also empirically examines the influence of basic economic aspect and monetary and financial factors on asset price. This paper thinks,under the complex background that America withdrew from quantitative easing policy and the foreign exchange market and asset market of many emerging market countrieswere shocked,China should prudently push the opening of capital market and further enlarge the bidirectional fluctuation space of RMB's exchange rate to make it stabilized within a rational equilibrium exchange rate interval,which has active real significance for the long-term development of Chinese asset market and the prudent operation of financial system.