货币政策、理财产品与微观主体存贷款选择——基于上市银行2004-2013年季度数据的实证分析

Monetary Policy,Wealth Management Products and the Deposit and Loan Selection of Microsubjects——Empirical Analysis Based on the Quarterly Data of Listed Banks from 2004 to 2013

本文首先对法定存款准备金率和存款增长率等经济现象进行统计分析,得出理论推理:法定存款准备金率上调导致银行理财产品收益率上升,进而造成存款转移和增长乏力。实证分析表明,贷款增速与法定存款准备金率相关性不显著,但同业拆借利率对贷款的抑制作用明显,存款增长和理财产品预期收益率负相关。实证结果证实了理论推理,在银行理财产品规模增长条件下,银行资产负债结构发生变化,以法定存款准备金率为代表的数量型货币政策工具冻结资金有限,信贷和法定存款准备金率的相关性减弱,货币政策效果被削弱。货币政策应尽快从依赖数量型工具转为价格型调控。

This paper statistical analyzes the economic phenomena like reserve requirement ratio and deposit growth rate and gets the theoretical inference: the rise of reserve requirement ratio causes the rise of the return rate of banks' wealth management products,deposit transfer and sluggish growth. Empirical analysis shows that: no significant correlation exists between loan growth rate and reserve requirement ratio. But the inhibitory roles played by inter-bank offered rate in loans is significant. Negative correlation exists between deposit growth and the expected return rate of wealth management products. Empirical results prove theoretical inference. When the scale growth of banks' wealth management products emerges,banks' asset-liability structure changes. The quantitative monetary policy tools represented by reserve requirement ratio have limited capacity in freezing funds. The correlation between credit and reserve requirement is weakened and the effects of monetary policy is also weakened. Monetary policy should transfer from relying on quantitative tools to price control.