中日两国生育意愿、生育水平及影响因素比较

A Comparative Study on Fertility Intention and Fertility Level and the Influencing Factors Between China and Japan

利用中国和日本的现有资料,分析两国已婚妇女的生育意愿、生育水平、意愿与行为的差距及部分影响因素。结果显示,约十年前,两国已婚妇女的理想子女数都高于现实的总和生育率,且日本妇女期望子女数远大于其现实的生育水平。年龄、教育程度、收入水平、职业类别、闲暇时间、本人兄弟姐妹数量对两国已婚妇女的理想子女数有影响。个体生育意愿是动态的,与个体所处生命历程阶段相关。在低于更替水平的生育率下,了解真实的生育意愿和行为,掌握两者差距的特点,才能够准确预测生育水平,制定有效的人口发展政策。

With data available from China and Japan, this paper analyzes fertility intention, fertility level, the difference between the two and factors that may affect the difference. The result indicates that married women of both countries want more children than the level of total fertility rates. Japanese women want more children than women in China. Education, income, type of occupation, leisure time, and number of siblings of the women may influence women＇ s fertility intention. However, fertili- ty intention is dynamically changing over the women＇ s life course. Only and action are known can the fertility level be predicted accurately, and policies be made. if the real fertility intention thus positive guiding social