摘要
针对武器装备研制进度管理中无法对工期进行有效管理的问题,提出一种将Monte Carlo运用到PERT网络中以确定关键路径的方法。在经典计划评审技术基础上,给出网络图中工序的关键度、关键路径的定义,通过Monte Carlo法模拟仿真计算得到各工序关键度的大小,依据关键度大小确定网络的关键路径,并成功地将该方法运用到某自主防空作战平台运载器分系统PERT网络图分析中。仿真结果表明:该方法有效地解决了网络中工序持续时间随机性较大的问题,为确定关键技术及分析关键技术对研制进度的影响提供了一种有效的方法。
According to the problem that duration can＇t be controlled effectively during the equipment development schedule, a method is proposed to confirm the critical path which applies Monte Carlo to the PERT network. Based on the classic PERT, this paper gives the definition of the activity criticality and critical path, studies how to use the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the activity criticality so as to confirm the critical path, and apply this method to analyze the PERT network of an independent air defense combat platform＇s carrier subsystem successfully. The simulation results indicates that this method can effectively solve the problem that activity durations are random, besides, it offers an effective way to distinguish the critical technology and analyze the influences to the development schedule.
出处
《兵工自动化》
2016年第1期15-19,共5页
Ordnance Industry Automation
关键词
网络计划技术
关键路径法
蒙特卡罗:研制进度
network planning technology
critical path method
Monte Carlo
development schedule
