中国影子银行对银行系统稳定性和货币政策的影响

The Influence of China's Shadow Banking on the Stability of the Banking System and Monetary Policy

影子银行对经济增长有一定的促进作用,却也隐含着巨大的风险。所以近年来影子银行系统规模的飞速扩张越来越为更多人关注。选取2006年1月至2014年12月的月度数据建立VAR模型,利用ADF检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法实证分析了中国影子银行对银行系统稳定性和货币政策的影响。经研究发现影子银行对货币政策的中介目标、最终目标和传导机制都产生了不同程度的干扰和冲击,削弱了货币政策的政策执行效果,还造成银行系统稳定性的波动。针对分析结果建议加强监管、完善立法,改革货币政策工具,筑建银行系统稳定预警机制。

Shadow banking has a certain role in promoting economic growth, but it also implies a huge risk. So more and more people pay attention to the shadow banking system which has rapid expansion of the scale in recent years. In this paper, the author selected the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2014 to establish the VAR model, using ADF test, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the impact of China~ shadow banking on banking system stability and mone- tary policy. The study found that the intermediary goal of monetary policy, the ultimate goal and the transmission mechanism have had varying degrees of interference. And the shadow banking not only weakened the monetary policy implementation effect, but also caused the instability of the banking system. We suggested that the government should strengthen supervision, improve legislation, reform of monetary policy tools and build an early warning mechanism for the stability of banking system based on the results.