基于混合方法的合同能源管理项目风险评估

A Hybrid Approach to Risk Evaluation on the Project of Energy Performance Contracting

合同能源项目管理作为一种新型的节能机制,在未来具有广阔的发展前景。在美国及欧洲等发达国家已经形成一个巨大市场潜力的新兴产业,而我国正式引入合同能源管理机制的时间较晚,发展面临着很多方面的不确定性。在对合同能源项目风险分析的过程中需要解决一个重要问题,即各个风险之间的相互影响以及风险的长期变化趋势。文章提出了将模糊感知图(FCMs)和模糊层次TOPSIS算法结合的新方法,采用模糊集的形式对合同能源管理的项目进行了定性分析,不仅考虑了影响项目实施的各个风险之间的相互依赖,而且通过实证研究对不同的项目风险进行排序选择,结果根据排序得分选取对企业来说风险较小的项目进行实施,为项目的决策者提供了指导。此种方法通过对合同能源管理项目的风险评估可以使节能服务公司和客户企业了解项目的各种风险,并及时采取必要措施来减低风险对整个项目实施的影响。

Energy performance contracting（EPC） is a win-win mode for energy saving,which has a wide development prospect in the future. A huge market potential in emerging industries has occurred in the United States, Europe and other developed countries ,but the development of our formal introduction of contract energy management mechanism is faced with many uncer- tainties because of late introduction. In the process of the risk analysis ,the important problem deciders need to solve is the interdependencies among the risk attributes and long-term trends. This paper presents the hybrid approach of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps（FCMs） and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution （TOPSIS）for fuzzy multi-attribute decisionmaking in risk evaluation with consideration of the interactions of the attributes. Furthermore ,to deal with the assessment information imperfectahility of EPC projects and the uncertainties in human cognitive ability, the fuzzy set is used in the evaluation. Then the application of the proposed method is showed with an example. The results shows the project which has the little risk according to the ranking score will be chosen by decision-makers. This method of risk assessment through energy management projects contract can make energy service companies and enterprise customers understand the risks of the project and take the necessary measures in time to minimize the impact of risks on the overall project implementation.