基于异质网络的邮件蠕虫病毒传播模型

Propagation Model of Email Worm-virus Based on Heterogeneous Networks

文中根据现实生活中邮件蠕虫病毒发生后个体不同的行为机制,以及安装杀毒软件的概率和杀毒软件的查杀能力随时间变化的事实,结合邮件网络的结构特性,提出了一种改进的基于异质网络的邮件蠕虫病毒SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)传播模型。结合邮件蠕虫病毒的传播特点,利用相互作用的马尔可夫链方法推导出相应的SEIR模型的动力学方程组,表征邮件蠕虫病毒的传播过程。通过蒙特卡罗方法对SEIR模型传播动力学过程进行实验仿真,探索影响邮件蠕虫病毒传播的基本因素。仿真结果表明,改进的邮件蠕虫病毒SEIR传播模型更加符合真实邮件网络上的蠕虫病毒传播过程,且快速地提高杀毒软件的安装概率以及杀毒软件的查杀能力能够有效地抑制邮件蠕虫病毒的传播。

Currently,email has become one of the most commonly communication in daily life,while email worm- virus constitutes one of the major Internet security threats and has attracted considerable attention. Therefore,the research on the spreading models of email worm- virus has a great significance in preventing and controlling the propagation of email viruses. The probability of installing antivirus software,and the virus- killing ability of antivirus software are time- varying when the email worm- virus outbreaks. According to the above factors and the different opening probability of suspicious email caused by individual differences,propose an improved email worm- virus spreading SEIR（ Susceptible- Exposed- Infected- Removed） model in heterogeneous networks with consideration of the scale- free feature of email networks. Use the Interaction of M arkov Chains（ IM C） method to derive the dynamical equations of SEIR model,representing the process of email worm- virus propagation. Furthermore,M onte- Carlo method is used to explore the basic factors affecting the propagation of email worm- virus. The simulation results showthat the newSEIR model based on heterogeneous networks performs well on describing the real propagation of email worm- virus. In addition,the results of simulation also point out that quick increasing probability of installing antivirus software or improving virus- killing ability of antivirus can effectively restrain the propagation of email worm- virus.