东江河流系统健康诊断及分析

Health Diagnosis and Analysis of Dongjiang River System

为维护东江河流系统的健康、促进人水和谐发展,在确定东江河流系统涵义的基础上,结合东江河流系统的实际情况和面临的问题,构建了东江河流系统健康诊断指标体系和层级结构,利用模糊数学理论和层次分析法建立了多层次模糊综合健康诊断模型,对东江河流系统2008～2012年的健康状况进行诊断。结果表明,2008、2009、2012年东江河流系统均处于亚健康状态,2010年东江河流系统处于理想状态,2011年东江河流系统处于健康状态。历年来东江河流系统中健康成分一直少于非健康成分,且健康成分逐渐减少、非健康成分逐渐增多,有向病态方向发展的趋势,模型诊断结果与东江河流系统实际情况相符,可见所建模型可行、有效。

For keeping the health of Dongjjiang River System（DRS）and promoting human-water harmony,based on the definition of the DRS,considering the actual situation and the faced problems,the index system and hierarchy structure of Dongjiang River system health diagnosis are established.The health diagnosis model of DRS is built by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.The health situation of DRS during 2008 and 2012was diagnosed.The result shows that the status of DRS is sub-healthy in 2008,2009 and 2012,healthy in 2011 and ideal condition in 2010.The health components of the DRS has always been less than the non-health components over the years,and the health components decrease gradually and the non-health components increase gradually.It may be observed that there is a tendency towards disease status for the DRS.The result of the health diagnosis model shows that it is fit for the actual conditions of DRS.So,the proposed health diagnosis model is effective and practical.