摘要
为研究水库下游存在区间入流的防洪系统在洪水组合后所带来的防洪风险,考虑到出库洪水与区间洪水之间的相关关系,以雅砻江和九龙河流域为例,在分析两流域洪水特性的基础上,采用条件概率组合法计算两流域洪水组合后下游安全区的防洪风险率及洪水分布函数,求得设计防洪标准所对应洪水发生的概率,计算结果更符合实际情况,为锦屏一级水电站水库高效安全运行和水库下游防洪安全措施的制定提供了重要依据。
Aiming at evaluating the flood control risk of flood control area where the main stream flood and the interval inflow flood encounter,considering the correlativity between outbound flood and the interval flood,this paper uses the combination of conditional probability method to calculate the flood control risk downstream and the distribution function of the combined flood.Yalongjiang River Basin and Jiulongjiang River Basin are used as the study instance in this paper.This paper calculates the distribution function of the combined flood and provides important basis for the efficient safe operation of Jinping hydropower station reservoir and the establishment of downstream flood control measures.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2016年第1期49-52,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司资助(JKZX-201416-01)
国家自然科学基金项目(51279062)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(13QN22
2014ZD12)
关键词
洪水组合
条件概率组合法
防洪风险
雅砻江流域
九龙河流域
flood combination
conditional probability combination method
flood control risk
Yalongjiang River Ba sin
Jiulongjiang River Basin
