基于NCEPGFS与JMAGSM预报场的WRF模式风速预测效果对比

Comparison of Wind Speed Prediction in WRF Model Based on NCEP GFS and JMA GSM Forecasting Fields

基于NCEP GFS、JMA GSM两种预报场资料,设计了4组模拟试验,分别采用WRF3.4/3.4.1模式预测了2014年5月23～26日、9月22～25日两个时段（再细分为6个子时段）香港地区近地层10m高处的风速,并选用15个地面自动气象站及1个探空站垂直风廓线实测数据对预测结果进行检验。结果表明,在稳定天气条件下,NCEP、JMA预报场均能较好地反映近地面风速的日变化过程,所预测的10 m高处风速的RRMSE值相差不大,NCEP预报场预报的风速变化趋势相对较准;近地层垂直风速廓线模拟中NCEP预报场优于JMA预报场,JMA预报场模拟风速廓线走势存在失真现象;更新YSU模式能小幅改善夜间地表风速模拟效果,但对风速廓线走势影响不大。

In order to compare the effect of two forecasting fields（NCEP GFS and JMA GSM）on wind speed prediction with two versions of WRF model（WRF3.4/3.4.1）,four groups of tests were carried out in HK during two periods23-26 May and 22-25 September 2014（then subdivided each period into six times）.After examining the predictions of wind speed at 10 mand wind profile by observations of fifteen surface weather stations and King＇s Park sounding station,the results show that both NCEP and JMA forecasting fields can reflect the diurnal variation of wind speed near the surface better under stable weather conditions.The RRMSEvalue of 10 mwind speed with these two driving datasets are not so far apart,but the trends of wind speed in NCEP schemes are relatively more accurate than that of JMA.Similarly,NCEP schemes can do better in vertical wind speed profiles simulation and the profiles described by JMA schemes are distorted.Updating YSU PBL scheme can slightly reduce the simulation error of wind speed at night while it has a smaller impact on wind speed profile simulation.