大型公共支出项目的政策效果评估--以“八七扶贫攻坚计划”为例

Evaluating the Policy Effect of Large-Scale Public Expenditure Projects:Taking “Seven-Year Priority Poverty Alleviation Program” as an Example

本文基于Hsiao等(2012)提出的基于面板数据的政策效应评估方法,分别选取贵州、甘肃、内蒙古及河北四省区各县1978-2012年的样本数据,具体考察了"八七计划"对各贫困县的政策效应。实证发现:(1)各省区总体实施绩效均比较显著。在选取的158个贫困县中,约有61%的贫困县的政策效应具有长期持续性。(2)在实施之初,"八七计划"的政策效应均不显著,具有一定的滞后性。(3)甘肃省各贫困县政策效应的年际变化波动幅度较小,实施绩效显著且稳定;贵州省的短期政策效应相对平稳,而长期效应趋于不稳定且逐渐减弱;内蒙古及河北省的短期及长期政策效应均不稳定。(4)初期农民人均纯收入和人均财政支出对政策效应具有显著影响。

This paper adopts the new policy evaluation method proposed by Hsiao et al. （2012）, selects the sample data of counties in Guizhou, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Hebei from 1978 to 2012, investigates policy effect of the Seven-Year Priority Poverty Alleviation Program on national-level poverty-stricken counties. Empirical research results are as follows. （1） The overall implementation performance is comparatively significant in each province, and the policy effect of about 61% of the 158 selected poor counties is sustainable in the long run. （2） In the beginning of the implementation of the program, the policy effect is not significant and has certain hysteretic nature. （3） The fluctuation range of the annual variation of the policy effect of the poor counties in Gansu is smaller, and the implementation performance is significant and stable. Short-term policy effect in Guizhou is relative stable, while the long-term effect tends to be unstable and gradually weakened. The short-term and long-term policy effects in Inner Mongolia and Hebei are not stable. （4） The initial rural net per capita income and per capita expenditure have a significant impact on policy effects.